Weights 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 WoW Comparable
Team '07-08 '07-08 WP 3yAvg WP BR WP WoW Pelton Pelton Wrap Pelton WP Accuscore Accuscore 2 Hollinger Davis21Wylie Mike G Mountain Bill Simmons Vegas wAvg Over Under Difference Optimist Pessimist Orig Revised
BOS 66 67.0 61.4 53.8 59.3 53 52.6 61.7 58 59 60 62 66.9 63 63 53.5 60.3 10 6 -1.1 '07-08 WP Pelton Wrap 2 1
NJN 34 30.1 32.1 34.4 33.8 33 33.5 23.7 25 23 27 25 29.1 27 25 27.5 32.6 2 14 1.2 BR WP Accuscore 2 18 2
NYK 23 25.9 28.2 36.3 24.5 24 24.5 36.5 25 23 28 22 19.4 31 25 31.5 28.7 11 5 -4.2 Pelton WP Mike G 20 3
PHI 40 42.7 45.4 57.7 41.1 54 53.6 58.2 48 49 50 48 49.1 48 43 48.5 46.7 15 1 -5.6 Pelton WP '07-08 23 4
TOR 41 48.0 44.8 41.5 38.6 43 43.0 39.5 46 46 47 42 45.5 44 41 47.5 43.2 16 0 -4.6 '07-08 WP WoW 28 5
CHI 33 34.9 37.6 41.1 28.9 32 31.7 32.0 29 31 39 36 40.7 43 41 40.5 35.6 16 0 -6.7 Mountain WoW 4 6
CLE 45 40.2 45.6 51.7 45.9 48 48.0 52.5 47 47 47 50 44.2 48 58 47.5 45.9 11 5 0.1 Bill Simmons '07-08 WP 5 7
DET 59 59.8 53.0 46.1 57.0 55 53.0 53.7 50 51 54 54 54.6 55 54 50.5 54.0 2 14 3.0 '07-08 WP BR WP 8 8
IND 36 37.4 42.5 41.3 53.3 37 37.9 44.7 40 39 41 36 45.8 46 36 34.5 43.6 0 16 9.7 WoW Vegas 11 9
MIL 26 25.5 28.6 27.4 20.4 23 23.0 29.8 25 25 32 28 30.6 21 29 30.5 25.5 16 0 -5.1 Hollinger WoW 16 10
ATL 37 37.6 33.0 31.3 28.0 34 34.4 36.8 35 36 31 33 34.2 37 37 36.5 32.5 16 0 -4.4 '07-08 WP WoW 1 11
CHA 32 31.8 36.3 41.3 33.6 38 36.6 31.9 31 31 40 32 33.7 23 21 36.5 35.8 8 8 -2.2 BR WP Bill Simmons 3 12
MIA 15 20.7 36.0 58.3 43.5 47 47.4 36.5 43 40 39 35 25.8 27 44 37.5 39.6 4 12 3.9 BR WP '07-08 15 13
ORL 52 55.4 50.9 46.6 53.8 46 46.8 42.3 50 51 46 45 44.7 50 48 47.5 51.7 1 15 2.1 '07-08 WP Pelton WP 22 14
WAS 43 40.5 34.4 33.0 33.9 40 39.1 37.0 41 47 36 38 39.0 31 35 37.5 35.4 14 2 -1.6 Accuscore 2 Mountain 30 15
DAL 51 51.7 57.0 50.2 58.0 47 47.3 52.4 53 54 45 49 50.8 52 47 46.5 54.2 0 16 3.8 WoW Hollinger 6 16
HOU 55 51.6 55.5 45.1 50.1 55 54.8 49.6 59 60 56 60 51.2 56 52 53.5 50.6 14 2 -0.5 Davis21Wylie BR WP 10 17
MEM 22 20.4 21.9 35.0 19.7 21 21.4 20.8 18 18 26 23 14.5 19 16 22.5 24.3 11 5 -4.6 BR WP Mike G 14 18
NOH 56 53.3 54.0 52.6 56.4 49 48.2 45.0 57 57 50 53 48.0 55 62 51.5 54.1 3 13 2.3 Bill Simmons Pelton WP 19 19
SAS 56 52.4 52.2 40.4 53.2 41 41.8 44.9 51 52 47 53 48.0 50 48 48.5 49.6 1 15 3.6 '07-08 BR WP 27 20
DEN 50 49.8 30.2 13.2 28.3 32 32.2 32.1 35 36 41 40 43.5 42 42 41.5 30.4 15 1 -2.1 '07-08 BR WP 7 21
MIN 22 18.4 26.5 47.4 34.7 38 38.4 38.8 30 30 31 33 31.3 29 28 30.5 31.7 4 12 3.0 BR WP '07-08 WP 17 22
OKC 20 20.2 18.9 20.9 16.5 23 23.5 21.3 24 24 20 23 21.1 18 23 25.5 19.1 16 0 -2.6 Vegas WoW 21 23
POR 41 39.6 39.3 53.5 40.1 51 50.6 54.1 50 49 42 42 44.3 45 45 44.5 43.1 14 2 -3.0 Pelton WP 3yAvg WP 25 24
UTA 54 57.3 54.3 53.2 52.8 49 49.3 50.3 51 52 58 58 60.9 57 53 51.5 54.4 10 6 -1.6 Mike G Pelton 29 25
GSW 48 46.2 38.9 38.1 37.0 48 47.2 42.3 27 28 40 37 38.9 33 35 37.5 40.0 11 5 -3.0 '07-08 Accuscore 9 26
LAC 23 23.5 32.9 38.4 42.7 35 34.2 32.1 29 31 30 34 28.5 32 33 33.5 34.4 0 16 8.3 WoW '07-08 12 27
LAL 57 59.0 55.6 45.3 67.1 62 62.3 60.0 61 64 57 60 65.8 63 66 54.5 56.7 0 16 10.3 WoW BR WP 13 28
PHO 55 53.2 51.2 23.2 47.6 46 43.6 37.0 50 51 45 49 52.6 51 43 46.5 43.8 8 8 3.8 '07-08 BR WP 24 29
SAC 38 35.9 32.2 31.7 30.2 33 30.5 32.3 28 28 23 29 27.3 34 37 28.5 32.5 10 6 -2.3 '07-08 Hollinger 26 30
Total 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1237 1230 1230 1216 1230 1228 1229 1230 1230 1230 1224 1230
Optimist Pessimist
'07-08 5 3
Formatting Pelton Wrap Projections from Kevin Pelton's wrap up column at basketball prospectus '07-08 WP 5 2
Percent over comparable Pelton Projections from Divisional articles at basketball prospectus 3yAvg WP 0 1
10% Positive Outliers Pelton WP Wins Produced projections done by me using Pelton's individual player projections BR WP 5 6
10% Negative Outliers Accuscore Taken from individual team forecasts WoW 4 5
Accuscore 2 Taken from forecast page Pelton 0 1
Pelton Wrap 0 1
Pelton WP 3 2
Accuscore 0 1
Accuscore 2 1 1
Hollinger 1 2
Davis21Wylie 1 0
Mike G 1 2
Mountain 1 1
Bill Simmons 2 1
Vegas 1 1
Grading as of January 13th, 2009 based on Monte Carlo Results
Team '07-08 '07-08 WP 3yAvg WP BR WP WoW Pelton Pelton Wrap Pelton WP Accuscore Accuscore 2 Hollinger Davis21Wylie Mike G Mountain Bill Simmons Vegas wAvg W% MC MC-W% Rank MC-W% Average error Orig Revised
BOS 5 5.6 -0.1 -7.7 -2.2 -8 -8.8 0.3 -3 -3 -1 1 5.5 2 2 -7.9 -1.1 63.6 61.42 -2.1 21 -1.4 2 1
NJN -2 -6.4 -4.3 -2.0 -2.7 -3 -2.9 -12.7 -11 -13 -9 -11 -7.3 -9 -11 -8.9 -3.8 41 36.44 -4.6 28 -7.3 18 2
NYK -9 -6.4 -4.1 4.0 -7.8 -8 -7.8 4.2 -7 -10 -4 -10 -12.9 -1 -7 -0.8 -3.6 31.9 32.28 0.4 12 -5.5 20 3
PHI 1 3.9 6.6 18.9 2.3 15 14.8 19.4 9 10 11 9 10.3 9 4 9.7 7.9 37.7 38.8 1.1 11 9.6 23 4
TOR 5 12.4 9.2 5.8 2.9 7 7.3 3.8 10 10 11 6 9.8 8 5 11.8 7.6 33.6 35.66 2.0 8 8.0 28 5
CHI 0 1.6 4.2 7.7 -4.5 -1 -1.7 -1.3 -4 -3 6 3 7.3 10 8 7.1 2.3 34.5 33.35 -1.2 19 2.3 4 6
CLE -23 -27.8 -22.4 -16.3 -22.0 -20 -20.0 -15.5 -21 -21 -21 -18 -23.8 -20 -10 -20.5 -22.1 67.9 67.97 0.0 16 -20.2 5 7
DET 13 14.1 7.4 0.5 11.3 9 7.3 8.0 4 5 8 8 8.9 9 8 4.8 8.3 51.5 45.66 -5.9 30 8.1 8 8
IND 3 4.8 9.8 8.7 20.7 4 5.3 12.1 7 6 8 3 13.2 13 3 1.9 11.0 28.1 32.62 4.6 3 8.1 11 9
MIL -15 -15.6 -12.6 -13.7 -20.8 -18 -18.1 -11.3 -16 -16 -9 -13 -10.5 -20 -12 -10.6 -15.7 39 41.13 2.2 7 -14.6 16 10
ATL -9 -8.9 -13.5 -15.2 -18.4 -12 -12.1 -9.6 -11 -10 -15 -13 -12.3 -9 -9 -10.0 -14.0 50.1 46.47 -3.6 27 -12.1 1 11
CHA 1 0.4 4.8 9.9 2.1 7 5.2 0.5 0 0 9 1 2.3 -8 -10 5.1 4.3 30.2 31.45 1.2 10 1.8 3 12
MIA -26 -20.0 -4.8 17.6 2.7 6 6.6 -4.2 2 -1 -2 -6 -15.0 -14 3 -3.3 -1.1 43.3 40.76 -2.5 22 -3.4 15 13
ORL -9 -6.0 -10.5 -14.9 -7.7 -15 -14.6 -19.2 -11 -10 -15 -16 -16.7 -11 -13 -13.9 -9.8 64.7 61.43 -3.3 25 -12.7 22 14
WAS 22 19.6 13.5 12.0 12.9 19 18.2 16.1 20 26 15 17 18.1 10 14 16.6 14.5 15.5 20.92 5.4 1 16.8 30 15
DAL 5 5.9 11.2 4.4 12.3 1 1.5 6.6 7 8 -1 3 5.0 6 1 0.7 8.4 48.8 45.78 -3.0 24 5.2 6 16
HOU 5 1.7 5.6 -4.8 0.2 5 4.9 -0.3 9 10 6 10 1.3 6 2 3.6 0.7 50.5 49.91 -0.5 18 3.9 10 17
MEM -3 -4.2 -2.7 10.3 -5.0 -4 -3.3 -3.8 -7 -6 1 -2 -10.2 -6 -9 -2.2 -0.4 24.4 24.67 0.3 13 -3.3 14 18
NOH 3 0.8 1.4 0.1 3.9 -4 -4.3 -7.5 4 5 -3 0 -4.5 2 9 -1.0 1.6 53.1 52.52 -0.5 17 0.6 19 19
SAS 5 1.1 0.9 -10.9 1.9 -10 -9.5 -6.4 0 0 -4 2 -3.3 -1 -3 -2.8 -1.7 54.7 51.3 -3.4 26 -2.6 27 20
DEN -3 -2.7 -22.3 -39.3 -24.2 -21 -20.3 -20.4 -18 -17 -12 -13 -9.0 -11 -11 -11.0 -22.1 53.9 52.5 -1.4 20 -16.1 7 21
MIN -6 -9.4 -1.3 19.6 6.9 10 10.6 11.0 2 2 3 5 3.5 1 0 2.7 4.0 25.1 27.78 2.7 6 3.9 17 22
OKC 3 2.8 1.5 3.5 -0.9 6 6.1 3.9 7 7 3 6 3.7 1 6 8.1 1.7 12.6 17.39 4.8 2 3.9 21 23
POR -10 -11.6 -12.0 2.3 -11.1 0 -0.6 2.9 -1 -2 -9 -9 -6.9 -6 -6 -6.7 -8.1 51 51.22 0.2 14 -5.7 25 24
UTA 4 7.6 4.6 3.5 3.1 -1 -0.4 0.6 1 2 8 8 11.2 7 3 1.8 4.7 49.6 49.69 0.1 15 4.2 29 25
GSW 21 19.3 12.0 11.2 10.2 21 20.4 15.5 0 1 13 10 12.1 6 8 10.7 13.2 23.1 26.82 3.7 5 12.1 9 26
LAC 2 2.0 11.4 17.0 21.2 14 12.7 10.7 8 10 9 13 7.0 11 12 12.0 12.9 17.7 21.45 3.7 4 10.7 12 27
LAL -7 -4.7 -8.1 -18.4 3.4 -2 -1.4 -3.7 -3 1 -7 -4 2.1 -1 2 -9.2 -7.0 68.3 63.7 -4.6 29 -3.9 13 28
PHO 7 5.1 3.1 -24.8 -0.5 -2 -4.5 -11.0 2 3 -3 1 4.5 3 -5 -1.6 -4.3 50.6 48.07 -2.6 23 -1.7 24 29
SAC 17 15.0 11.4 10.9 9.4 12 9.7 11.5 7 7 2 8 6.5 13 16 7.7 11.7 19.4 20.82 1.4 9 10.4 26 30
Raw diff 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 -14 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 -6 0 1235 1230
RSME 59 59 53 76 61 60 58 57 50 53 50 51 56 51 46 48 53
Rank 14 13 8 17 16 15 12 11 4 9 3 5 10 6 1 2 7
Grading as of January 13th, 2009 based on W% Pace
Team '07-08 '07-08 WP 3yAvg WP BR WP WoW Pelton Pelton Wrap Pelton WP Accuscore Accuscore 2 Hollinger Davis21Wylie Mike G Mountain Bill Simmons Vegas wAvg W% MC MC-W% Rank MC-W% Average error Orig Revised
BOS 2 3.4 -2.2 -9.8 -4.3 -11 -11.0 -1.8 -6 -5 -4 -2 3.4 -1 -1 -10.1 -3.2 63.6 61.42 -2.1 21 -3.6 2 1
NJN -7 -10.9 -8.9 -6.6 -7.2 -8 -7.5 -17.3 -16 -18 -14 -16 -11.9 -14 -16 -13.5 -8.4 41 36.44 -4.6 28 -11.8 18 2
NYK -9 -6.0 -3.7 4.4 -7.4 -8 -7.4 4.6 -7 -9 -4 -10 -12.5 -1 -7 -0.4 -3.2 31.9 32.28 0.4 12 -5.1 20 3
PHI 2 5.0 7.7 20.0 3.4 16 15.9 20.6 10 11 12 10 11.4 10 5 10.8 9.0 37.7 38.8 1.1 11 10.7 23 4
TOR 7 14.4 11.2 7.9 5.0 9 9.4 5.8 12 12 13 8 11.9 10 7 13.9 9.6 33.6 35.66 2.0 8 10.0 28 5
CHI -2 0.4 3.1 6.5 -5.6 -3 -2.8 -2.5 -6 -4 4 1 6.2 8 6 6.0 1.1 34.5 33.35 -1.2 19 1.2 4 6
CLE -23 -27.7 -22.4 -16.3 -22.0 -20 -19.9 -15.5 -21 -21 -21 -18 -23.7 -20 -10 -20.4 -22.1 67.9 67.97 0.0 16 -20.2 5 7
DET 7 8.2 1.5 -5.4 5.5 3 1.5 2.2 -2 -1 2 2 3.1 3 2 -1.0 2.4 51.5 45.66 -5.9 30 2.2 8 8
IND 8 9.4 14.4 13.2 25.2 9 9.8 16.6 12 11 13 8 17.7 18 8 6.4 15.6 28.1 32.62 4.6 3 12.7 11 9
MIL -13 -13.4 -10.4 -11.5 -18.6 -16 -16.0 -9.1 -14 -14 -7 -11 -8.4 -18 -10 -8.5 -13.5 39 41.13 2.2 7 -12.4 16 10
ATL -13 -12.5 -17.2 -18.8 -22.1 -16 -15.7 -13.3 -15 -14 -19 -17 -15.9 -13 -13 -13.6 -17.6 50.1 46.47 -3.6 27 -15.7 1 11
CHA 2 1.6 6.1 11.1 3.4 8 6.4 1.7 1 1 10 2 3.5 -7 -9 6.3 5.6 30.2 31.45 1.2 10 3.1 3 12
MIA -28 -22.5 -7.3 15.0 0.2 4 4.1 -6.7 0 -3 -4 -8 -17.5 -16 1 -5.8 -3.6 43.3 40.76 -2.5 22 -5.9 15 13
ORL -13 -9.3 -13.8 -18.2 -11.0 -19 -17.9 -22.5 -15 -14 -19 -20 -20.0 -15 -17 -17.2 -13.1 64.7 61.43 -3.3 25 -16.1 22 14
WAS 27 25.0 18.9 17.5 18.4 24 23.6 21.5 25 31 20 22 23.5 15 19 22.0 19.9 15.5 20.92 5.4 1 22.2 30 15
DAL 2 2.9 8.2 1.4 9.3 -2 -1.5 3.6 4 5 -4 0 2.0 3 -2 -2.3 5.5 48.8 45.78 -3.0 24 2.2 6 16
HOU 5 1.2 5.0 -5.4 -0.4 5 4.3 -0.8 9 9 6 10 0.7 6 2 3.0 0.1 50.5 49.91 -0.5 18 3.3 10 17
MEM -2 -4.0 -2.4 10.6 -4.7 -3 -3.0 -3.6 -6 -6 2 -1 -9.9 -5 -8 -1.9 -0.1 24.4 24.67 0.3 13 -3.0 14 18
NOH 3 0.3 0.9 -0.4 3.4 -4 -4.9 -8.1 4 4 -3 0 -5.1 2 9 -1.6 1.0 53.1 52.52 -0.5 17 0.0 19 19
SAS 1 -2.3 -2.4 -14.3 -1.5 -14 -12.9 -9.8 -4 -3 -8 -2 -6.7 -5 -7 -6.2 -5.1 54.7 51.3 -3.4 26 -5.9 27 20
DEN -4 -4.1 -23.7 -40.7 -25.7 -22 -21.7 -21.8 -19 -18 -13 -14 -10.4 -12 -12 -12.4 -23.6 53.9 52.5 -1.4 20 -17.5 7 21
MIN -3 -6.7 1.5 22.3 9.6 13 13.3 13.7 5 5 6 8 6.2 4 3 5.4 6.7 25.1 27.78 2.7 6 6.6 17 22
OKC 7 7.6 6.3 8.3 3.9 10 10.9 8.7 11 12 7 10 8.5 5 10 12.9 6.5 12.6 17.39 4.8 2 8.7 21 23
POR -10 -11.4 -11.7 2.6 -10.8 0 -0.4 3.2 -1 -2 -9 -9 -6.7 -6 -6 -6.5 -7.8 51 51.22 0.2 14 -5.4 25 24
UTA 4 7.6 4.6 3.6 3.2 -1 -0.3 0.7 1 2 8 8 11.3 7 3 1.9 4.8 49.6 49.69 0.1 15 4.2 29 25
GSW 25 23.0 15.7 14.9 13.9 25 24.1 19.2 4 4 17 14 15.8 10 12 14.4 16.9 23.1 26.82 3.7 5 15.8 9 26
LAC 5 5.7 15.1 20.7 25.0 17 16.5 14.4 11 13 12 16 10.8 14 15 15.8 16.6 17.7 21.45 3.7 4 14.5 12 27
LAL -11 -9.3 -12.8 -23.1 -1.3 -6 -6.0 -8.4 -7 -4 -11 -8 -2.5 -5 -2 -13.8 -11.6 68.3 63.7 -4.6 29 -8.5 13 28
PHO 4 2.5 0.5 -27.4 -3.1 -5 -7.0 -13.6 -1 0 -6 -2 2.0 0 -8 -4.1 -6.9 50.6 48.07 -2.6 23 -4.3 24 29
SAC 19 16.4 12.8 12.3 10.8 14 11.1 12.9 9 9 4 10 7.9 15 18 9.1 13.1 19.4 20.82 1.4 9 11.8 26 30
Raw diff -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 2 -5 -5 -19 -5 -7 -6 -5 -5 -5 -11 -5 1235 1230
RSME 65 64 61 85 68 69 68 67 59 62 60 59 64 58 54 58 62
Rank 12 11 7 17 15 16 14 13 4 8 6 5 10 2 1 3 9